If I Had a Ballot

The National Baseball Hall of Fame will announce the 2010 inductees on January 6, 2010. Candidates must appear on 75% of the ballots to be elected. Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) can vote for up to 10 candidates.

I am not a member of the BBWAA, but if I was, these are the candidates I would vote for:

Roberto Alomar
This is Alomar’s first year on the ballot. He was clearly the best second baseman of his era. He won 10 Gold Gloves. Alomar had incredible range. I never saw a second baseball that could cover as much ground as he did.

He was a career .300 hitter. In 17 seasons, Alomar hit over .300 nine times. His 2,724 career hits ranks 53rd on the all time hits list. He won four Silver Slugger awards.

He was the starting second baseman in nine All Star Games, and was selected as a reserve in three All Star Games.

Barry Larkin
This is Larkin’s first year on the ballot. He was the best shortstop National League of his era. He was a career .295 hitter with 2,340 total hits. He was the first shortstop to hit over 30 home runs and steal over 30 bases in the same season (1996).

Larkin won the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award in 1995. He won 3 Gold Gloves and 9 Silver Slugger awards. He was the starting NL shortstop in five All Star Games, and was selected as a reserve in seven All Star Games.

I am partial to the American League; therefore I did not have the opportunity to watch Barry Larkin play, but as an avid baseball fan, I read about Larkin, and was aware of his greatness as a player.

Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin are the definite first ballot candidates of the 2010 class, but there are other first ballot candidates that are not as obvious.

Fred McGriff
This is McGriff’s first year on the ballot. Fred McGriff home run numbers will suffer in comparison to the steroid inflated home run totals generated by other players during his career.

From 1987 through 1999, McGriff hit over 30 home runs 8 times, and a total of 390. By comparison, Barry Bonds hit over 30 home runs 9 times and a total of 445 home runs during the same period.

During this 12-year period, the best player in baseball out homered McGriff by 55. In other words, Bonds hit 4.5 more home runs per year than McGriff.

McGriff was a throw back home run hitter. He consistently hit over 30 home runs each year when 30 home runs meant something.

McGriff yearly totals do not compare favorably with Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Jose Canseco, and Juan Gonzalez. But the home run was cheapened during McGriff’s playing career. Hitting 50 home runs in a season became the norm due to steroids.

Hitting 500 home runs was the magic number. It meant automatic induction in the Baseball Hall of Fame. McGriff hit 493 home runs. Steroids have overshadowed McGriff’s career. There are seven players, who were suspected or accused of using steroids, ahead of McGriff on the all time home run list.

Critics will mention McGriff never won the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award, but he was in the top ten in MVP votes six times.

McGriff had the unfortunate luck of playing in the same league as Barry Bonds from 1991 to 1997. Bonds won two MVP awards (1992 and 1993). Ken Caminiti, an admitted steroid user, won the MVP in 1996. Larry Walker won the MVP in 1997. Walker’s offensive numbers were inflated because played for the Colorado Rockies.

McGriff had over 100 RBI’s five times in his career. His 1,550 RBI is ranked 41st on the all time list. He is front of Hall of Famer Willie Stargell and right behind Hall of Famer Willie McCovey on the RBI list. Also, six players suspected or accused of using steroids are ahead of McGriff on the RBI list.

McGriff was the starting first baseman on three All Star Games, and he was selected as a reserve in two other All Star Games. McGriff won the 1994 All Star Game MVP on the basis of one at-bat.

The 1994 All Star Game was played in Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburgh. The American League was leading 7-5 going to the bottom of the ninth inning. Lee Smith was pitching in relief. Marquis Grissom led off the inning with a walk. Craig Biggio grounded to third base, and Grissom was forced out at second.

Manager Jim Fregosi kept McGriff on the bench because he wanted McGriff to face Lee Smith in the ninth inning. McGriff hit a home run off Lee Smith to left-center, and tied the game. The National League won the game in the bottom of the tenth inning, 8-7.

McGriff was not the most dominant first baseman of his era. He was not the most prolific power hitter of his era, but his reputation as a home run hitter was diminished due to the steroid era.

Edgar Martinez
This is Martinez’s first year on the ballot. He was primarily a Designated Hitter during his 18-year career. It was not due poor defensive skills. He was a third baseman by trade, but unfortunately Martinez was as a fragile as glass. It seemed he got hurt every time he put on a glove and was asked to play the field.

My most vivid memory of Edgar Martinez was during the 1995 playoffs against the New York Yankees. Martinez massacred the Yankee pitching staff. Anything over the plate was hit hard. It felt like he was hitting with runners in scoring position in every inning. His batting average in that series was .571. He hit two home runs and drove in 10 RBI.

Martinez was a late bloomer. He did not become a regular until he was 27 years old. Otherwise his career numbers might be more impressive. His career batting average is .312. He hit over .300 ten times during his career. He won two batting titles. Martinez drove in over 100 RBI’s six times. He ranks 41st on the all time doubles list.

Martinez was the starting DH in four All Star Games, and was selected as a reserve in three All Star Games.

Andre Dawson
This is Andre Dawson’s ninth year on the ballot. I have heard that Dawson’s .323 On Base Percentage (OBP) is the statistic that is keeping him out of the Hall of Fame. If it’s true, then it is one of the most ridiculous baseball related argument ever made. Andre Dawson is a Hall of Famer.

Sometimes statistics do not tell the whole story. In 21 seasons, Dawson hit over 30 home runs three times. He drove in over 100 RBI’s four times. He batted over .300 four times. These numbers do not appear impressive.

But Andre Dawson was a five-tool baseball player. He could hit for average, hit for power, play great defense, had a great throwing arm, and could run – until artificial turf ruined his knees.

Dawson was a dominant player. He was the best player on the Montreal Expos and the Chicago Cubs.

Dawson won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1977. He won the MVP Award in 1987 while playing on a sixth place team. He was the top ten in MVP votes three times. He was the starting outfielder in seven All Star Games, and was selected as a reserve in one All Star Game. Dawson won eight Gold Gloves and four Silver Slugger awards.

Dawson’s career statistics are more impressive. He is 36th on the all time home run list with 438; 45th on the all time hit list with 2,774; 34th on the all time RBI list with 1,591; 25th on the all time total bases list with 4,787; and 48th on the all time doubles list with 503. He stole 314 bases. Dawson is in the top 50 of five all time offensive categories.

Dawson last played over 140 games in 1992. Baseball has changed a lot since 1992. A baseball player who averages 27 home runs, 98 RBI’s with a .279 batting average will not look impressive next to the gaudy numbers produced in an offensive laden, small ballpark, inferior pitching, steroid era. But if you saw Andre Dawson play, you saw a Hall of Famer.

Bert Blyleven
This is Blyleven’s 13th year on the ballot. Winning 300 games is the magic number that gets pitchers inducted into the Hall of Fame. Randy Johnson may be the last pitcher to win at least 300 games.

Blyleven won 287. There may not be another pitcher who will ever approach 287 career wins as well.

Pitching has changed in the time that I have been a baseball fan. Pitchers were expected to pitch complete games and accumulate over 250 innings.

Currently, pitchers are on pitch counts, and are expected to throw for six innings in a game. Instead of innings, pitchers accumulate no decisions.

Bert Blyleven is a dinosaur. Pitch counts did not matter. At the age of 20, Blyleven pitched 278.1 innings. At age 21, 287 innings. At age 22, 325 innings. Compared to pitchers of this era, Blyleven is a Hall of Famer.

But is Blyleven a Hall of Famer compared to pitchers of his era? It depends on whom you compare Blyleven to.

Blyleven won 20 games once. He struck out over 200 batters eight times in his career. His ERA was under 3.00 nine times. He pitched over 200 innings sixteen times. An average Blyleven season would be 14 wins, 12 losses, with a 3.31 ERA, 245 innings pitched, and 183 strikeouts. These are not overwhelming statistics.

But compare Blyleven with Hall of Famer Don Sutton. There numbers are similar. Sutton won 20 games once. He struck out over 200 batters five times. His ERA was under 3.00 eight times. Sutton pitched over 200 innings 20 times. An average Sutton year would be 14 wins, 11 losses, with a 3.26 ERA, 235 innings pitched, and 159 strikeouts.

Compared to Sutton, Blyleven’s career statistics and his ranking on several all time lists make him a Hall of Famer.

His 287 career wins – 27th on the all time wins list. Sutton is ranked 24th with 324 wins.

Blyleven career innings pitched is 4,970 – 14th on the all time innings pitched list. Sutton is ranked 7th on the list with 5,282.3.

Blyleven is ranked 4th on the all time strikeout list with 3,701. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Steve Carlton are ahead of Blyleven. Sutton is ranked 7th with 3,574.

Blyleven is ranked 11th in games started with 685. Sutton is ranked 3rd with 756.

Blyleven is ranked 91st in complete games with 242. Sutton is ranked 176th with 178 complete games.

Blyleven is ranked 9th in shutouts with 60. Sutton is ranked 10th with 58 shutouts.

If Don Sutton is a Hall of Famer, then Bert Blyleven is a Hall of Famer.

Jack Morris
This is Jack Morris’ eleventh year on the ballot. He was one of my favorite pitchers during the 1980’s and early 1990’s. He was a horse. You could count on Jack Morris to pitch deep into games and accumulate innings during the course of a 162 game season. He was capable of winning a game 1-0. But Morris won plenty of games in which he allowed over four runs.

Unfortunately, his career ERA of 3.90 reflects the fact Morris pitched to the scoreboard with some disregard for his ERA. In seven seasons, Morris’ ERA was over 4.00. In 18 seasons, he never had an ERA under 3.00.

He won 20 or more games three times. He pitched over 200 innings eleven times. He struck out over 200 batters only three times. For a dominant pitcher that is a low number.

He was the ace on three different teams. He started three All Star Games, and was selected as a reserve in two other All Star Games. Morris never won the Cy Young Award, but was in the top ten in voting seven times. He was the World Series MVP in 1991. He will be remembered for pitching a classic 7th game of the World Series in which he pitched 10 innings and won the game 1-0 over the Atlanta Braves.

In baseball, statistics are a point of reference. The past is compared with the present through statistics.

Jack Morris was a great pitcher in his era even if the statistics do not support my argument. At times, I witnessed greatness when he pitched.

Ron Santo (Veteran’s Committee)
Ron Santo is no longer on the Hall of Fame ballot. His last year on the ballot was 1998. Only the Veteran’s Committee can elect Ron Santo to the Hall of Fame.

Ron Santo’s played at the same time as Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. Maybe Santo is being unfavorably compared to Robinson.

Robinson won 16 Gold Gloves. Santo won 5 Gold Gloves. Robinson also played in six World Series. In the 1970 World Series, Robinson displayed his great fielding ability, and was awarded the MVP. He was also the American League MVP in 1964, and the MVP of the All Star Game in 1966.

Santo never played in a World Series. He never won the MVP. But Santo hit over .300 four times. Robinson hit over .300 twice. Santo hit over 30 home runs four times. Robinson never hit 30 home runs in a season. Santo had four 100 RBI seasons. Robinson had 2.

Santo was overlooked because he played on a team that was not as successful as the Baltimore Orioles (from 1966 to 1974), but Santo was one of the best third baseman of his era.