To Escalate Or Not To Escalate

That is the question facing President Obama regarding the war in Afghanistan. The President limited himself to two options: maintain troops at current levels or escalate.

The 68,000 American troops in Afghanistan are not enough to defeat the Taliban; therefore the President will decide to increase troop levels.

General McCrystal, commander of American and allied forces, is requesting 40,000 to 60,000 additional troops.

President Obama will not consider a third option, complete troop withdrawal, because he campaigned to fight the war that is necessary arguing the goal “is to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future.”

Complete troop withdrawal could create a humanitarian disaster. The Taliban are notoriously brutal in their treatment of women.

However, President Obama should consider historical precedents before dismissing the option of complete troop withdrawal.

The Soviet Union deployed 130,000 troops in Afghanistan. Their mission was not benevolent. The occupation was brutal, but eventually lost the war to the Mujahideen, proving their troop levels were not enough.

Increasing troop levels to 120,000 will not guarantee victory. To win the war, President Obama would have to apply the Powell Doctrine, use overwhelming force, and increase troops to Vietnam War levels.

The US was unable to defeat North Vietnam with 535,000 troops. South Vietnam was smaller and less populous than Afghanistan.

General David Petraeus argues, “Real counterinsurgency requires 20 to 25 troops [per] thousand residents.”

Increasing troop levels to 600,000 is unrealistic. Public opinion would never support a massive increase in troop levels.

The goal of defeating Al Qaeda was lost the moment their leadership escaped from Afghanistan, and the United States invaded Iraq.

Al Qaeda is functioning in Pakistan, relocating their terrorist training camps to a country we cannot invade.

Furthermore, the Taliban movement is centered in the Pashtun region bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan provides an endless supply of Taliban fighters.

The Taliban are fighting on both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border, threatening Pakistan’s political stability.

There is no clear exit strategy. The war in Afghanistan could drag on for years. What if 60,000 troops are not enough?

The war was lost seven years ago. A war cannot be rebooted after years of neglect. Fighting a war to avoid losing is a poor excuse to continue.

Complete troop withdrawal should be reconsidered.