Lost in the Euphoria

The New York Yankees are in first place of the Eastern Division, with a 6.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees were able to pad their lead after sweeping the Red Sox in a recent four game series at the new Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees also have the best record in baseball with a record of 73 wins and 43 losses. They are on a pace to win 102 games.

The Yankees lead the Major Leagues with 649 runs scored, 179 home runs, and are second in team batting average with .278.

Pundits have declared the Yankees are the best team in baseball. Fans are optimistic the Yankees will win their first World Series title since 2000.

But this is the age of parity. Success, even during the course of a 162 game season, can be a mirage. The Yankees have been able to hide their deficiencies this season. They should be credited with successfully navigating the season through 116 games, but they have weaknesses that could be exposed in a short series.

This Yankee team is not the same as the juggernaut team of 1998. This edition can score runs, and have the potential to out pitch their opponents, but the 2009 Yankees lack the depth of previous championship teams.

First, this team has not been able to find a consistent fifth place hitter in their lineup. Hideki Matsui has settled in the fifth spot. He’s hit 19 home runs and driven in 58 runs, but is only hitting .266. A championship team needs a fifth place hitter with a higher batting average than .260. Otherwise, pitching staffs will pitch around the fourth place hitter – Alex Rodriguez.

Alex Rodriguez is still recovering from hip surgery earlier this year. Rodriguez has hit 21 home runs, and driven in 63 runs, an adequate number based on the number of at bats in an abbreviated season, but he is hitting .257.

He is still trying to recover from the hip surgery, and needs occasional rest, but he is not as productive as in previous seasons.

This lineup has holes besides Rodriguez hitting .257 and Matsui hitting .266. The Yankees only have two players hitting over .300 – Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano. The eighth place hitter, Nick Swisher, is batting .244.

Playoff teams, with better pitching staffs, could shut down a team without a productive fourth and fifth hitters in the lineup. And it would be difficult to sustain rallies and score runs from the bottom of the lineup with an eighth place hitter batting less than .250.

The Yankees cannot expect to win a championship solely on their ability to exploit the cozy right field dimensions of the new stadium by hitting lazy fly balls over the wall.

Hitting is not the only weakness opponents have not exploited. The pitching staff is unsettled.

Sergio Mitre is the current fifth starter. He has a 7.04 earned run average (ERA). He is not expected to participate or contribute in the post season.

Joba Chamberlain, the fourth starter, is limited to 150 innings this year. He has already pitched 121 innings. Chamberlain has about four starts left this year, assuming he pitches at least 6 innings. He will not be available to start games in September. The Yankees will need another fourth starter after Chamberlain reaches 150 innings.

Phil Hughes is the other prized jewel of the farm system, but he is currently pitching one inning in relief. The Yankees will not risk Hughes to an arm injury by transitioning him back into the starting rotation.

The Yankees have started collecting pitchers from other organizations to fill the void. First to audition is Chad Gaudin, formally of the San Diego Padres. He was obtained in a trade in August. He started 19 games with the Padres. He won 4 games, lost 10, and has a 5.13 ERA.

If Gaudin does not succeed, then the Yankees will resort to Russ Ortiz. The Houston Astros released Ortiz in August. He won 3 games, lost 6 games, and had a 5.57 ERA. He last pitched in 2007. He missed the 2008 after suffering an arm injury that led to Tommy John surgery. He signed a minor league contract with the Astros in January 2009.

If Gaudin and Ortiz fail, then the Yankees will turn to Josh Towers, another pitching retread. He is currently pitching with the AAA affiliate. He last pitched in the Major Leagues in 2007.

In his career, Towers won 45 games, lost 55, and has a 4.96 ERA. He pitched for the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. He signed a minor league contract with the Washington Nationals in 2009, but was released in May 5, 2009.

Josh Towers could not get out of the minor leagues and pitch for the worst team in baseball. This is pitching prospect number three for the fourth spot in the Yankee rotation after Chamberlain reaches 150 innings pitched.

The Yankees mismanaged Joba Chamberlain. They knew he was only going to pitch 150 innings. The smart thing to do was have Chamberlain start the season in May, and pitch through the year, instead of potentially interrupting his season in September, then restarting him in October.

If the Yankees reach the post season without Chamberlain pitching meaningful games in September, then they run the risk of using a rusty starting pitcher in October.

The Yankees will need four solid starters to navigate through the post season. Three pitchers are not enough.

The Yankee starting pitching staff is not deep enough to maneuver through the playoffs. They have a solid number one starter in CC Sabathia, but he has not succeeded in the playoffs in the past. His post season ERA is 7.92.

A.J. Burnett is the number two starter on the staff, but he has never pitched in the post season.

Andy Pettitte is the number three starter. He is considered a big game pitcher, having compiled a record of 14 wins, 9 losses, with a 3.96 ERA.

Pettitte is the only starter with an impressive post-season resume, and he is 37 years old.

And lurking in the shadows are two potential problems. The Angels are leading the Western Division. The Angels have eliminated the Yankees from the post-season in 2002 and 2005. Also, the Angels the only team to post a winning record against the Yankees during the Joe Torre era.

The Red Sox are currently leading the Wild Card race. They are no longer playoff patsies, having won the World Series in 2004 and 2007. The Yankees have lost 8 out of 12 games with the Red Sox, so far, this season.

The path to a World Series championship is not as clear as the Yankees record would indicate. There are no super teams anymore. In the age of parity, any team can win a championship.

Pundits and fans should not get carried away with the Yankees success. The playoffs can be a humbling experience.