What A Mets

Citifield was supposed to symbolize a bright new era in New York Mets history, but the future is as murky and dreary as the 2009 baseball season. Promise interrupted by bad luck.

Last Saturday, David Wright was struck in the head by a 94 MPH fastball delivered by San Francisco Giant pitcher Matt Cain. Wright landed on the 15-day disabled list. He was diagnosed with a concussion.

Wright joins a lengthy list of Met players on the disabled list, but he was the last of the four core players to succumb to injury – joining shortstop Jose Reyes, centerfielder Carlos Beltran, and first baseman Carlos Delgado.

Injuries are a part of the game is a cliché often recited, but a baseball team cannot overcome the loss of their leadoff, third, fourth and fifth place hitters.

The Mets lacked the depth to overcome these injuries because of a weak farm system, and the general baseball trend of stacking the roster with 13 pitchers at the expense of quality backup position players.

The latest injury insured the New York Mets will not play meaningful games in September. Their window to win a championship with these core players has officially closed.

Sadly, the Mets appear to have peaked in 2006 when they won 97 games, lost 65, and lost game 7 of the National League championship series (NLCS) to the St Louis Cardinals.

The Mets decent started in 2007 when they blew a seven game lead with 17 games left to play, allowing the Philadelphia Phillies to win the division.

Willie Randolph was the manager in 2007. He was fired in mid season in 2008 because the Mets were not performing to expectations.

In 2008, the Mets had a 3.5 game lead over the Phillies, but the Mets lost 10 out of the last 17 games they played – including the last game of the season, the last game ever played at Shea Stadium.

Ownership will have to decide if General Manager Omar Minaya will be entrusted with rebuilding the franchise. Mr. Minaya was given a three-year contract extension worth $1.1 per year at the end of the 2008 season. The contract expires in 2012.

I will not rehash points made in an earlier essay (Class Dismissed) blaming Mr. Minaya for the state of the Mets team. Most of his personnel decisions, free agent signings, trades and players drafted were failures. He put this team together, and he should be held responsible for the Mets failure to reach the post season.

Sources in the Mets organization indicate assistant General Manager John Ricco will replace Mr. Minaya after the season.[i]

The next general manager will have the opportunity of rebuilding a franchise that is in trouble.

The Mets are in transition. Fortunately, the Mets have $41.35 million in expiring contracts. Theoretically, they should be able to restock the team with quality players.

The contracts for first baseman Carlos Delgado, catcher Brian Schneider, shortstop Alex Cora, utility man Fernando Tatis, leftfielder Gary Sheffield, and relief pitchers J.J. Putz and Billy Wagner will expire at the end of the 2009 season.

But the Mets are operating in an national economy in the midst of a recession. Furthermore, the owners lost millions of dollars in the Bernie Madoff ponzi scam. The Wilpons have not disclosed how much money they lost. The Mets may not have enough money to restock the franchise.

The Mets will need a catcher next season. Omir Santos is a career minor leaguer who is having a decent year, but he is strictly a backup catcher. The Mets will have to obtain or sign a full time catcher.

Ivan Rodriguez (38) should be considered. He will be a free agent after the 2009 season He is still a productive offensive player, and would be a defensive improvement over Schneider.

Josh Bard (32), Jason Kendall (36) and Bengie Molina (35) are three other aging free agents catchers the Mets can consider signing, but eventually the Mets will have to develop their own catchers.

First baseman Carlos Delgado is the power threat in the Mets lineup. He is 37 years old and is recovering from hip surgery earlier this year. The Mets should not resign Carlos Delgado. Finding a comparable player in the free agent market will be difficult.

First basemen Russell Branyan (34), Nick Johnson (31) and Adam LaRoche (30) will be free agents after the 2009 season. Branyan is a home run threat, but he strikes out often. Johnson is a solid fielder with a high on base percentage, but Johnson is injury prone. The Atlanta Braves obtained LaRoche in a trade in July. The Braves may decide to keep LaRoche.

Daniel Murphy is currently playing first base. He could audition for the full time role next year, but the Mets should buy him a first baseman’s glove. It might help his fielding.

The Mets cannot upgrade the second base position because Luis Castillo signed a four-year $25 million contract in 2007. To trade Castillo, the Mets will need to find a team that needs a second baseman, and can afford Castillo’s salary.

The Mets are set at third base with David Wright. He is the cornerstone of the franchise. Hopefully, he will make a full recovery from his injury, but Wright has hit fewer home runs in 2009. Citifield’s spacious dimensions have impacted Wright’s power.

Once upon a time, Reyes was argued to be a better baseball player than the Yankees Derek Jeter – mostly by deluded Mets fans. He was more dynamic, and appeared to have unlimited potential. The Mets will have to decide if Jose Reyes is worth the aggravation.

The leg injuries that plagued him earlier in his career have resurfaced. He has played in only 36 games in 2009.

Reyes often sulked during Willie Randolph’s tenure as manager. He disappeared in September 2007 and September 2008. His exuberance often angers opposing teams.

Florida shortstop Hanely Ramirez is debatably having the career Jose Reyes should be having.

The Mets can obtain multiple prospects for Reyes, but they would need two players to replace Reyes – a shortstop and a leadoff hitter. It will be difficult finding one player who can fulfill both roles.

Alex Cora and Fernando Tatis are utility players. Tatis could be resigned, but he is strictly a backup. The Mets should not count on Tatis duplicating his 2008 statistics. The Mets have enough middle infielders in the minor leagues to replace Alex Cora.

The Mets do not have a left fielder. Last year, they were counting on 41-year-old Moises Alou to bat fifth in the lineup, and provide protection for Carlos Delgado. He appeared in only 15 games.

Daniel Murphy was selected to play left field, but the career infielder proved to be inept in the outfield.

Gary Sheffield is the current left fielder. He is 41 years old, and is injury prone. Ideally, he is a designated hitter. Recently, Sheffield asked for a contract extension, but was informed by Mets management that he was not in their plans for the future, thus angering Sheffield for the twentieth time in his career.

Leftfielders Jason Bay (31), Matt Holliday (30) and Manny Ramirez (38) will be free agents.

Matt Holliday is a Scott Boras client. Boras has the tendency to use large market teams as leverage to meet the salary demands of his clients. The Mets probably will avoid a bidding war.

The Boston Red Sox will probably resign Jason Bay. The Red Sox are happy with his production, and have the resources to resign Bay.

Manny Ramirez is also represented by Scott Boras. Ramirez opted out of a multi million-dollar contract hoping to score a four-year contract at $25 million per year. He is another baseball player the Mets cannot afford.

Carl Crawford (28) could become a free agent if Tampa Bay decides they cannot afford him. Crawford would be the prize of the free agent market. If he becomes a free agent, then the Mets should make every effort to sign him. He would strengthen the Mets offensively and defensively. He can hit first or second. He is an all-star player who he can hit for average, steal bases, and score runs.

Imagine Crawford hitting after Reyes and before Beltran with Wright hitting fourth. This team will not have a problem scoring runs.

Fernando Martinez is one of the few prized jewels in the Mets farm system, but he appeared overmatched this season. He played in 29 games before getting hurt. His batting average was .176. He is 21 years old. He may need at least one more full season in the minors.

Centerfielder Carlos Beltran will be entering the sixth year of the seven-year contract he signed in 2005. He will be 33 years old next season. He will be a free agent after the 2011 season. Scott Boras is Beltran’s agent, therefore it is unlikely Beltran will sign an contract extension with the Mets. Beltran will reenter the free agent market after his contract expires.

If the Mets are willing to make the financial commitment to sign free agents in the off-season, then the Mets should keep Beltran.

But if the Mets do not have the financial resources to restock the franchise, then the Mets should consider trading Beltran for prospects. However, Beltran’s contract will limit the number of teams that could afford his salary.

Jeff Francoeur was obtained in a trade with the Atlanta Braves for Ryan Church. Barring another trade, Francoeur will be the Mets starting right fielder in 2010.

The Mets strength will be the starting pitchers. The dimensions of Citifield appear to favor the pitchers. They have some depth with Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfry, rookie Jonathon Niese, Fernando Nieve, Oliver Perez.

Perez could be a commodity on the trade market, but he is erratic and inconsistent. His trade value is low.

If Maine, Niese and Nieve recover from their injuries, then the Mets could have a solid starting rotation.

The Mets are set at the closer position with Francisco Rodriguez. Most of the other relief pitchers are under contract for 2010.

The Mets have positions to fill, but have a barren farm system incapable of restocking the franchise. The Mets are a large market team, but may not have the financial resources to sign free agents.

The Mets cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the recent past, poor choices in the draft, signing aging free agents, and depending on players with histories of injuries.

Because it will be a shame to waste such a beautiful new ballpark on an aging, tired and unsuccessful baseball team.


[i] Adam Rubin, “Mets Have A Plan Post-Omar,” New York Daily News, August 11, 2009.

Lost in the Euphoria

The New York Yankees are in first place of the Eastern Division, with a 6.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees were able to pad their lead after sweeping the Red Sox in a recent four game series at the new Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees also have the best record in baseball with a record of 73 wins and 43 losses. They are on a pace to win 102 games.

The Yankees lead the Major Leagues with 649 runs scored, 179 home runs, and are second in team batting average with .278.

Pundits have declared the Yankees are the best team in baseball. Fans are optimistic the Yankees will win their first World Series title since 2000.

But this is the age of parity. Success, even during the course of a 162 game season, can be a mirage. The Yankees have been able to hide their deficiencies this season. They should be credited with successfully navigating the season through 116 games, but they have weaknesses that could be exposed in a short series.

This Yankee team is not the same as the juggernaut team of 1998. This edition can score runs, and have the potential to out pitch their opponents, but the 2009 Yankees lack the depth of previous championship teams.

First, this team has not been able to find a consistent fifth place hitter in their lineup. Hideki Matsui has settled in the fifth spot. He’s hit 19 home runs and driven in 58 runs, but is only hitting .266. A championship team needs a fifth place hitter with a higher batting average than .260. Otherwise, pitching staffs will pitch around the fourth place hitter – Alex Rodriguez.

Alex Rodriguez is still recovering from hip surgery earlier this year. Rodriguez has hit 21 home runs, and driven in 63 runs, an adequate number based on the number of at bats in an abbreviated season, but he is hitting .257.

He is still trying to recover from the hip surgery, and needs occasional rest, but he is not as productive as in previous seasons.

This lineup has holes besides Rodriguez hitting .257 and Matsui hitting .266. The Yankees only have two players hitting over .300 – Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano. The eighth place hitter, Nick Swisher, is batting .244.

Playoff teams, with better pitching staffs, could shut down a team without a productive fourth and fifth hitters in the lineup. And it would be difficult to sustain rallies and score runs from the bottom of the lineup with an eighth place hitter batting less than .250.

The Yankees cannot expect to win a championship solely on their ability to exploit the cozy right field dimensions of the new stadium by hitting lazy fly balls over the wall.

Hitting is not the only weakness opponents have not exploited. The pitching staff is unsettled.

Sergio Mitre is the current fifth starter. He has a 7.04 earned run average (ERA). He is not expected to participate or contribute in the post season.

Joba Chamberlain, the fourth starter, is limited to 150 innings this year. He has already pitched 121 innings. Chamberlain has about four starts left this year, assuming he pitches at least 6 innings. He will not be available to start games in September. The Yankees will need another fourth starter after Chamberlain reaches 150 innings.

Phil Hughes is the other prized jewel of the farm system, but he is currently pitching one inning in relief. The Yankees will not risk Hughes to an arm injury by transitioning him back into the starting rotation.

The Yankees have started collecting pitchers from other organizations to fill the void. First to audition is Chad Gaudin, formally of the San Diego Padres. He was obtained in a trade in August. He started 19 games with the Padres. He won 4 games, lost 10, and has a 5.13 ERA.

If Gaudin does not succeed, then the Yankees will resort to Russ Ortiz. The Houston Astros released Ortiz in August. He won 3 games, lost 6 games, and had a 5.57 ERA. He last pitched in 2007. He missed the 2008 after suffering an arm injury that led to Tommy John surgery. He signed a minor league contract with the Astros in January 2009.

If Gaudin and Ortiz fail, then the Yankees will turn to Josh Towers, another pitching retread. He is currently pitching with the AAA affiliate. He last pitched in the Major Leagues in 2007.

In his career, Towers won 45 games, lost 55, and has a 4.96 ERA. He pitched for the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. He signed a minor league contract with the Washington Nationals in 2009, but was released in May 5, 2009.

Josh Towers could not get out of the minor leagues and pitch for the worst team in baseball. This is pitching prospect number three for the fourth spot in the Yankee rotation after Chamberlain reaches 150 innings pitched.

The Yankees mismanaged Joba Chamberlain. They knew he was only going to pitch 150 innings. The smart thing to do was have Chamberlain start the season in May, and pitch through the year, instead of potentially interrupting his season in September, then restarting him in October.

If the Yankees reach the post season without Chamberlain pitching meaningful games in September, then they run the risk of using a rusty starting pitcher in October.

The Yankees will need four solid starters to navigate through the post season. Three pitchers are not enough.

The Yankee starting pitching staff is not deep enough to maneuver through the playoffs. They have a solid number one starter in CC Sabathia, but he has not succeeded in the playoffs in the past. His post season ERA is 7.92.

A.J. Burnett is the number two starter on the staff, but he has never pitched in the post season.

Andy Pettitte is the number three starter. He is considered a big game pitcher, having compiled a record of 14 wins, 9 losses, with a 3.96 ERA.

Pettitte is the only starter with an impressive post-season resume, and he is 37 years old.

And lurking in the shadows are two potential problems. The Angels are leading the Western Division. The Angels have eliminated the Yankees from the post-season in 2002 and 2005. Also, the Angels the only team to post a winning record against the Yankees during the Joe Torre era.

The Red Sox are currently leading the Wild Card race. They are no longer playoff patsies, having won the World Series in 2004 and 2007. The Yankees have lost 8 out of 12 games with the Red Sox, so far, this season.

The path to a World Series championship is not as clear as the Yankees record would indicate. There are no super teams anymore. In the age of parity, any team can win a championship.

Pundits and fans should not get carried away with the Yankees success. The playoffs can be a humbling experience.