Yanks Will Not Repeat in 2010

In the 2010 baseball preview, New York Daily News writer Mark Feinsand offers 28 reasons why the New York Yankees will repeat as World Series champions, but I have one reason why the Yankees will not repeat. The Yankees do not have a legitimate number five hitter in their lineup.

The Yankees have penciled second baseman Robinson Cano as their fifth place hitter. His 2009 offensive statistics were impressive. His batting average was .320. He scored 103 runs, had 204 hits, with 25 home runs and 85 RBI. But his numbers did not translate into the post season. He hit .192 overall, and .136 in the World Series.

Cano is an impatient hitter who does not draw walks, but he was practically an automatic out in the World Series. His World Series performance reflected the fact that he is not a clutch hitter in the regular season and the post season.

In 2010, Cano will be assigned the task of protecting Alex Rodriguez in the lineup. Frankly, if I were the opposition, I would dare Cano to beat me in a clutch situation.

Another option to hit behind Rodriguez is Jorge Posada, but he is the starting catcher, and he will only start 110 to 120 games in 2010. The Yankees plan to use Posada as a DH in games he will not catch, but that will disrupt their lineup because their projected number two hitter in the lineup is Nick Johnson.

Nick Swisher is another candidate to bat fifth. He has power. Swisher hit 29 home runs in 2009, and he has a high on base percentage (.371), but he never hit above .270 in his career.

The Yankees were operating with a budget this off-season. General manager Brian Cashman wanted to reduce the payroll to under $200 million. World Series heroes Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui were not resigned. Their 2010 replacements are a significant downgrade.

In addition, Melky Cabrera, the 2009 starting center fielder, was traded to the Atlanta Braves for starting pitcher Javier Vazquez, who will be the fourth starter on the 2010 team.

In a sense, the Yankees traded Damon, Matsui and Cabrera for Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson and Brett Gardner.

Granderson is an upgrade over Damon only because he is younger, but the Yankees are replacing their last season’s number two hitter in the lineup with someone who will hit seventh.

Nick Johnson replaces Damon as the second place hitter – when he is playing. Johnson is injury prone. Also, Johnson is not a base stealer, in contrast to Damon.

Johnson replaced Matsui, who batted fifth in 2009, and protected Alex Rodriguez in the lineup. Matsui was also a clutch hitter and proven RBI man. Matsui was the full time DH. In 2010, Johnson and Posada will share DH duties. Posada will replace Johnson as DH when Posada is not catching.

Gardner lost the centerfield job to Cabrera after a slow start in 2009. He will be the starting leftfielder in 2010, and hit ninth in the batting order.

The Yankees have a lot of two, seven, eight and nine hitters in this lineup. Jeter is not really a leadoff hitter. He is really a number two hitter, but the Yankees do not have a prototypical leadoff hitter.

Granderson strikes out too much to be a true leadoff hitter, or a number two hitter. With his speed, I would bat Granderson ninth, but Gardner occupies that spot in the lineup.

Gardner could be a leadoff hitter on most teams, but the Yankees have a “must win now” mandate, and do not have the patience to wait for Gardner to develop into a leadoff hitter.

The projected lineup of Jeter, Johnson, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Cano, Posada, Granderson, Swisher, Gardner does not project the length of a championship team. This team will have difficulty scoring runs in 2010.

To overcome this weak lineup and win another championship, the Yankees will have to depend on their starting pitchers. The Yankees added Vazquez to their staff. He will pitch fourth in the rotation behind Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte.

Vazquez pitched successfully in the National League in 2009, but National League pitchers are not as effective when they switch leagues. National League lineups are easier to maneuver than American League lineups. I expect Vazquez’s ERA will jump from 2.87 to over 4.00.

As for Burnett, the number two starter in the rotation, it is worth repeating that he had virtually the same record as Hideki Irabu in 1998. Irabu was the fifth starter on that rotation. Burnett has the stuff of a number one, but the production of a three or four.

Phil Hughes beat Joba Chamberlain for the fifth spot in the rotation. This is a puzzling move for three reasons. First, Chamberlain was babied in 2009. The Yankees limited the number of innings he pitched because they wanted to protect his right arm.

The training wheels were supposed to come off in 2010, but management was not happy with Chamberlain’s velocity as a starter during spring training. He was throwing in the low 90’s. In contrast, Chamberlain was throwing in the high 90’s as a reliever during the 2009 post season.

The Yankees are mismanaging Chamberlain. They are sending him mixed messages. They were overly cautious with him in 2009, so he was cautious in the games he started. Chamberlain paced himself as a starter. He knew he could not throw in the high 90’s as a starter because he would run out of gas before the fifth inning.

Obviously, Chamberlain will throw harder as a relief pitcher knowing he will not pitch more than two innings. Sending Chamberlain to the bullpen nullified the progress he made as a starter in 2009. The Yankees are being seduced by the possibilities of the high 90’s fastball.

Second, the Yankees will need only four starting pitchers in the post season. As the fifth starter, Chamberlain would have been used in the bullpen during the post season.

Third, it will be Phil Hughes turn to pitch on a leash. The Yankees will face the same problem with Hughes. He will reach 120 innings by July or August, then he will be taken out of the rotation, or limited to three innings per start in order limit Hughes innings pitched to 150, and the Yankees will have to replace Hughes in the starting rotation with another retread.

The Yankees are fortunate there is parity in baseball. The era of the dominant team is over because baseball teams cannot afford to keep teams together. The Boston Red Sox upgraded their starting rotation at the expense of their starting lineup. John Lackey gives the Red Sox five solid starters, but their projected lineup of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez, J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre, Mike Cameron and Marco Scutaro is not as imposing as their recent championship teams.

The Tampa Bay Rays are probably the best team in the American League East. They are young, talented, fast and have a stable of quality young pitchers, but the Rays are under a lot of pressure to win games early in the season. Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena are in the last year of their contracts. If the Rays are not in first or second place by June, then management will trade Crawford and Pena for prospects.

For the Yankees, winning the American League East, the pennant or the World Series is not improbable, but management’s decisions during the off season and spring training do not inspire confidence. For the first time, the Yankees are operating with budgetary constraints. Are the Yankees scaling back their payroll anticipating next year’s free agent class? As a Yankee fan, I have been salivating at the possibility of Carl Crawford joining the team as a free agent.

Also, Derek Jeter’s contract expires at the end of 2010. Will the Yankees lowball Jeter the same way they offered pay cuts to Pettitte, Damon and Matsui?

Or are the Yankees losing money, and can no longer afford the best players?

The Yankees do not have a viable farm system to replace players as they depart or retire. I wish they did. But the Yankees will have to sign free agents to remain competitive in the future.

What is troubling is that I am seeing a pattern of mismanagement first witnessed after the 2001 season. Players on World Series winners are being replaced with inferior talent. The Yankees were able to win division championships, but did not have the talent to become champions. You just cannot replace players according their position. You have to consider where they hit in the lineup.

This team could repeat, but I am predicting the Yankees will be in third place at the end of the season. The Rays and the Red Sox will finish ahead.

Lost in the Euphoria

The New York Yankees are in first place of the Eastern Division, with a 6.5 game lead over the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees were able to pad their lead after sweeping the Red Sox in a recent four game series at the new Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees also have the best record in baseball with a record of 73 wins and 43 losses. They are on a pace to win 102 games.

The Yankees lead the Major Leagues with 649 runs scored, 179 home runs, and are second in team batting average with .278.

Pundits have declared the Yankees are the best team in baseball. Fans are optimistic the Yankees will win their first World Series title since 2000.

But this is the age of parity. Success, even during the course of a 162 game season, can be a mirage. The Yankees have been able to hide their deficiencies this season. They should be credited with successfully navigating the season through 116 games, but they have weaknesses that could be exposed in a short series.

This Yankee team is not the same as the juggernaut team of 1998. This edition can score runs, and have the potential to out pitch their opponents, but the 2009 Yankees lack the depth of previous championship teams.

First, this team has not been able to find a consistent fifth place hitter in their lineup. Hideki Matsui has settled in the fifth spot. He’s hit 19 home runs and driven in 58 runs, but is only hitting .266. A championship team needs a fifth place hitter with a higher batting average than .260. Otherwise, pitching staffs will pitch around the fourth place hitter – Alex Rodriguez.

Alex Rodriguez is still recovering from hip surgery earlier this year. Rodriguez has hit 21 home runs, and driven in 63 runs, an adequate number based on the number of at bats in an abbreviated season, but he is hitting .257.

He is still trying to recover from the hip surgery, and needs occasional rest, but he is not as productive as in previous seasons.

This lineup has holes besides Rodriguez hitting .257 and Matsui hitting .266. The Yankees only have two players hitting over .300 – Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano. The eighth place hitter, Nick Swisher, is batting .244.

Playoff teams, with better pitching staffs, could shut down a team without a productive fourth and fifth hitters in the lineup. And it would be difficult to sustain rallies and score runs from the bottom of the lineup with an eighth place hitter batting less than .250.

The Yankees cannot expect to win a championship solely on their ability to exploit the cozy right field dimensions of the new stadium by hitting lazy fly balls over the wall.

Hitting is not the only weakness opponents have not exploited. The pitching staff is unsettled.

Sergio Mitre is the current fifth starter. He has a 7.04 earned run average (ERA). He is not expected to participate or contribute in the post season.

Joba Chamberlain, the fourth starter, is limited to 150 innings this year. He has already pitched 121 innings. Chamberlain has about four starts left this year, assuming he pitches at least 6 innings. He will not be available to start games in September. The Yankees will need another fourth starter after Chamberlain reaches 150 innings.

Phil Hughes is the other prized jewel of the farm system, but he is currently pitching one inning in relief. The Yankees will not risk Hughes to an arm injury by transitioning him back into the starting rotation.

The Yankees have started collecting pitchers from other organizations to fill the void. First to audition is Chad Gaudin, formally of the San Diego Padres. He was obtained in a trade in August. He started 19 games with the Padres. He won 4 games, lost 10, and has a 5.13 ERA.

If Gaudin does not succeed, then the Yankees will resort to Russ Ortiz. The Houston Astros released Ortiz in August. He won 3 games, lost 6 games, and had a 5.57 ERA. He last pitched in 2007. He missed the 2008 after suffering an arm injury that led to Tommy John surgery. He signed a minor league contract with the Astros in January 2009.

If Gaudin and Ortiz fail, then the Yankees will turn to Josh Towers, another pitching retread. He is currently pitching with the AAA affiliate. He last pitched in the Major Leagues in 2007.

In his career, Towers won 45 games, lost 55, and has a 4.96 ERA. He pitched for the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. He signed a minor league contract with the Washington Nationals in 2009, but was released in May 5, 2009.

Josh Towers could not get out of the minor leagues and pitch for the worst team in baseball. This is pitching prospect number three for the fourth spot in the Yankee rotation after Chamberlain reaches 150 innings pitched.

The Yankees mismanaged Joba Chamberlain. They knew he was only going to pitch 150 innings. The smart thing to do was have Chamberlain start the season in May, and pitch through the year, instead of potentially interrupting his season in September, then restarting him in October.

If the Yankees reach the post season without Chamberlain pitching meaningful games in September, then they run the risk of using a rusty starting pitcher in October.

The Yankees will need four solid starters to navigate through the post season. Three pitchers are not enough.

The Yankee starting pitching staff is not deep enough to maneuver through the playoffs. They have a solid number one starter in CC Sabathia, but he has not succeeded in the playoffs in the past. His post season ERA is 7.92.

A.J. Burnett is the number two starter on the staff, but he has never pitched in the post season.

Andy Pettitte is the number three starter. He is considered a big game pitcher, having compiled a record of 14 wins, 9 losses, with a 3.96 ERA.

Pettitte is the only starter with an impressive post-season resume, and he is 37 years old.

And lurking in the shadows are two potential problems. The Angels are leading the Western Division. The Angels have eliminated the Yankees from the post-season in 2002 and 2005. Also, the Angels the only team to post a winning record against the Yankees during the Joe Torre era.

The Red Sox are currently leading the Wild Card race. They are no longer playoff patsies, having won the World Series in 2004 and 2007. The Yankees have lost 8 out of 12 games with the Red Sox, so far, this season.

The path to a World Series championship is not as clear as the Yankees record would indicate. There are no super teams anymore. In the age of parity, any team can win a championship.

Pundits and fans should not get carried away with the Yankees success. The playoffs can be a humbling experience.